Next-Gen Consoles May Face Significant Sales Decline if Priced Too High

The video game industry is looking at the next generation of consoles with concern. A crisis of components, driven by the growing demand for parts such as RAM modules for the manufacture of AI data centers, has caused an unprecedented increase in prices for PC hardware, consoles, and other technological devices. With the current PS5 and XBOX Series S already reaching prices of 599 euros and the latest PS5 Pro reaching 899 euros, the community is worried that the next generation of consoles could exceed the $1,000 price barrier.

## The Potential Impact on Sales According to Ampere Analysis, launching the next generation of consoles with a conventional design and incremental improvements in 2028 could lead to a massive decline in sales. The report estimates that the combined sales of PS6 and Project Helix with a hypothetical price of $1,000 or more could experience a decline of 38% during their first five years, compared to the current generation. This would also affect the future spending of players, with the market for console services and games potentially registering a decline of $3.4 billion (-12%) in 2031.

## Possible Solutions Ampere Analysis suggests that PlayStation and XBOX could follow several strategies to avoid a decline in sales. One option is to continue with their known strategy of launching improved versions of their systems and delaying the next generation beyond 2028. This would allow Sony and Microsoft to monitor the component crisis more closely and wait for the situation to normalize. Another option is to maintain the current strategy and launch the next generation in 2028, but with a reduced price, achieved through greater subsidies to hardware, new monetization models, and more aggressive digital content strategies.

## Comparison of Strategies The following table compares the potential sales figures for PS6 and Project Helix with different price points: | Console | Price | Sales Decline | | --- | --- | --- | | PS6 | $1,000 | 38% | | Project Helix | $1,000 | 38% | | PS6 | $700 | - | | Project Helix | $700 | - |

It is worth noting that the information available so far suggests that both Sony and Microsoft are adopting strategies that fit with two of the recommendations published by Ampere Analysis. Sony seems to be considering the second option, reinforcing its bet on digital and evaluating changes in the company. Microsoft, on the other hand, appears to be operating in a way more similar to the third recommendation, working on a more open ecosystem and offering innovation that has not been seen in its previous generations.